Keywords
Electoral reform
Political participation
Poverty and democracy
Electoral vulnerability
How to Cite
Abstract
This article examines the possibility of adopting a single-member district electoral system (first-past-the-post) in Mozambique, a context marked by structural poverty, low levels of (political) literacy, territorial discrepancies, and persistent socioeconomic vulnerabilities. Building upon the ongoing national debate on electoral reform, the study challenges the assumption that uninominal voting inherently strengthens accountability and proximity between voters and representatives. Methodologically, the analysis combines quantitative data from the National Institute of Statistics (INE) including poverty maps, illiteracy rates, and rurality indicators with voter registration and turnout data from the National Electoral Commission (CNE/STAE). The findings reveal statistically significant patterns: (i) poverty (r = − 0.45); (ii) illiteracy (r = − 0.62), (iii) and rurality (r = − 0.38) correlate negatively with electoral participation, while population density displays a positive association. Linear regression results confirm the exclusionary effects of poverty (β = − 0.31), illiteracy (β = − 0.42), and rurality (β = − 0.27), indicating structural conditions incompatible with the equitable functioning of majoritarian electoral systems. The article concludes that introducing single-member districts under these circumstances’ risks reinforcing local vote capture, deepening representational inequalities, and undermining democratic legitimacy. As such, the ongoing electoral reform process requires a more evidence-based and context-sensitive approach.
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