Abstract
Under international law, the territorial integrity of Ukraine must be ensured in accordance with the collectively agreed 1991 borders. Should the Russian Federation collapse, the Wider West and particularly Europe, should manage a stable sphere of military security on the Continent and a better articulation of North America and beyond it. A Russian defeat in Ukraine creates opportunities as well as risks. Trusting that a defeated Kremlin will abandon its imperial designs could be a mistake. In this article, we have drawn out several prospective scenarios to which we assign different degrees of probability.
References
Bugajski, Janusz (2018), The Suwalki Corridor, CEPA.
Cunningham, Steven Clark (2021). “Manifest destiny, American exceptionalism, and the city on a hill seen through Winthrop, O’Sullivan, and Bush: Opportunities for peacebuilding”, Sociology Compass, Vol 15, Issue 12.
Dobbs, Michael (2009), One Minute to Midnight, Vintage, New York.
Dobbs, Charles M., Tucker, Michael et al., (2005), Brest Litovsk, Treaty of (3 March 1918). Available online.
Fix, Liana and Kimmage, Michael (2022), “Putin’s Last Stand. The Promise and Peril of Russian Defeat”, Foreign Affairs, 23 December.
Gref, Herman (2022) “St Petersburg International Economic Forum, regarding the impact of Western sanctions imposed on Russia for the war in Ukraine”.
Manning, David and Jonathan Powell (2023), “How to contain a recalcitrant Russia”, Financial Times, 24 February.
Milne, Richard and Urté Alksninté (2022), “Suwalki Gap fears recede as NATO rethinks strategy”, Financial Times.
Mjør, Ka°re Johan (2018), “Smuta: cyclical visions of history in contemporary Russian thought and the question of hegemony”, Studies on Eastern European Thought, 70: 19-40, Springer.
Pietrzak, Piotr (2023), “The Brzezinski Doctrine and NATO’s response to Russia’s assault on Ukraine”, Modern Diplomacy, January 12.
Reuven, Rafael and Prakash, Aseem (1999), “The Afghanistan war and the breakdown of the Soviet Union”, Review of International Studies, 25, 693-708, British International Studies Association.
Sorge, Helmut (2022), “The greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century”, Policy Center for the New South, Rabat, Morocco.
Sukhankin, Sergey (2022), “A ‘Morgenthau Plan’ for Russia: Avoiding Post-1991 Mistakes in Dealing With a Post-Putin Russia”.
Tomé, Luís (2018/2019). “Geopolítica da Rússia de Putin: não é a União Soviética, mas gostava de ser… “, in Relações Internacionais, 60. Lisbon: pp. 69-99, IPRI-UNL.
Zelikow, Phillip and Allison, Graham (1999), The Essence of Decision. Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis, Pearson P T R.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Copyright (c) 2023 Political Observer | Revista Portuguesa de Ciência Política