Keywords
China
strategic competition
USA
Russia
strategic triangle
How to Cite
Abstract
We live in times of change, the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the changes that were underway in the structural arrangements of the international system dominated in recent decades by the US. With the end of the Cold War, it was believed that the globalization of democracy, relations of mutual cordiality between the great powers and international cooperation without restrictions through the institutions would be possible. This supposed end of strategic competition led to the loss of protagonism of realistic theory as a lens for international relations. Today, we know that the end of the story was announced too soon. According to this, the article focuses on the strategic relationship of the three great geopolitical powers — the US, China, and Russia — applying the theoretical analysis of Lowell Dittmer. The strategic triangle is not new, having foundations precisely during the Cold War, however, its structural arrangements differ from those previously verified. China is a stronger player globally, the US, although it has lost momentum, remains the world’s largest superpower, and Russia can never be sidelined by geopolitical relevance on several fronts. Based on this framework, the article will seek to unravel the dynamics that currently exist between the three actors and what consequences it brings to the future world order.
References
Allison, G. (2018). Destined for War – Can America and China escape Thucydides’s trap? Scribe.
Biden, J. (2021). «Remarks as Prepared for Delivery by President Biden — Address to a Joint Session of Congress». The White House. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/04/28/remarks-as-prepared-for-delivery-by-president-bidenaddress-to-a-joint-session-of-congress/.
ChinaPower Project. (2021). «What Do Overseas Visits Reveal about China’s Foreign Policy Priorities?». http://chinapower.csis.org/diplomatic-visits/.
Cláudio, F. (2021). O dilema chinês: assertividade para um mundo harmonioso?. Lusíada, Política Internacional e Segurança. Universidade Lusíada Editora.
Denisov, I. (2022). After Kazakhstan Crisis, China Will Reassess Its Influence in Central Asia. https://thediplomat.com/2022/01/after-kazakhstan-crisis-china-will-reassess-its-influence-in-central-asia/.
Dittmer, L. (1981). T,he Strategic Triangle: An Elementary Game-Theoretical Analysis. World Politics, 33(4), 485–515. https://doi.org/10.2307/2010133.
Freire, M. R. (2017). Política externa russa no «interméstico»: Uma abordagem construtivista. Relações Internacionais, 55, 35–49. https://doi.org/10.23906/ri2017.55a03.
Gaspar, C. (2020). O mundo de amanhã: Geopolítica contemporânea. Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos.
Glasser, S. (2019). «Putin the Great - Russia’s Imperial Impostor». Foreign Affairs.
Ikenberry, G. J. (2020). The Next Liberal Order – The age of contagion demands more internationalism, not less. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-06-09/next-liberal-order.
Ishikawa, Y., Tabeta, S. (2021). «Russia Deepens China Ties with Expanded Energy Exports».
Nikkei Asia. https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Russia-deepens-China-ties-with-expanded-energy-exports.
Kagan, R. (2007). The return of history. Carnegie. https://carnegieendowment.org/2007/08/05/return-of-history-pub-19477.
Kendall-Taylor, A., & Shullman, D. (2021). China and Russia’s Dangerous Convergence. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2021-05-03/china-and-russias-dangerous-convergence.
Krauthammer, C. (2002). The Unipolar Moment Revisited. The National Interest, 70, 5–18.
Kugler, J., & Organski, A. F. K. (1989). The Power Transition: A Retrospective and Prospective Evaluation. Handbook of War Studies (p. 13).
Lu, D. (2016). China’s “Two Centenary Goals”: Progress and Challenge. East Asian Policy, 08, 79–93. https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793930516000222.
Maçães, B. (2018). Belt and Road - A Chinese World Order. London: Hurst & Company. ISBN 978-1-78738-002-8.
Mathews, J. T. (2021). Present at the re-creation. Foreign Affairs.
Mearsheimer, J. J. (2014). Can China Rise Peacefully? [Text]. The National Interest; The Center for the National Interest. https://nationalinterest.org/commentary/can-chinarise-peacefully-10204.
Myers, S. L. (2015). The New Tsar: The Rise and Reign of Vladimir Putin. Knopf.
Office of the Director of National Intelligence. (2021). «Annual threat assessment report».
Putin, V. (2021). «Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly». http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/65418.
Reuters. (2014). «Putin Says Annexation of Crimea Partly a Response to NATO Enlargement».
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-putin-nato-idUSBREA3G22A20140417.
Sá, T. M. de. (2019). 2020: A década do equilíbrio tripolar. PÚBLICO. https://www.publico.pt/2019/01/06/mundo/analise/2020-decada-equilibrio-tripolar-1856768.
Sanger, D. E. (2021). «Biden Calls for U.S. to Enter a New Superpower Struggle». The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/29/us/politics/biden-china-russiacold-war.html.
Sparks, W. (2021). «The Limits of a China-Russia Partnership». GZERO Media. https://www.gzeromedia.com/the-limits-of-a-china-russia-partnership.
State Council. (2019). «China and the World in the New Era». http://english.www.gov.cn/archive/whitepaper/201909/27/content_WS5d8d80f9c6d0bcf8c4c142ef.html.
Snyder, J. (2009). One World, Rival Theories. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2009/10/26/one-world-rival-theories/
The Economic Times. (2018). China positioning itself to supplant America as next superpower: FBI official. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/china-positioning-itself-to-supplant-america-as-next-superpower-fbi-official/articleshow/67073398.cms.
The Economist (2021) «Vaccine diplomacy boosts Russia’s and China’s global standing». Disponível em https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/04/29/vaccine-diplomacy-boosts-russias-and-chinas-global-standing.
Walt, S. M. (1998). International Relations: One World, Many Theories. Foreign Policy, 110.
Wyne, A. (2019, Janeiro 9). Questioning the Presumption of a U.S.-China Power Transition.
https://www.rand.org/blog/2019/01/questioning-the-presumption-of-a-us-china-power-transition.html.
Xinhua (2021). «Chinese, Russian FMs hold talks, reach strategic consensus». Disponível em http://english.www.gov.cn/statecouncil/wangyi/202103/24/content_WS605a-9047c6d0719374afb49d.html.
At the moment of the article submission, it is required to the author(s) declare to agree with the conditions and norms of Political Observer - Revista Portuguesa de Ciência Política, as well as guaranteeing the inedited and original character of the text submitted to scientific evolution. Thus, the author(s) declare to accept the instructions and conditions of publication of the journal, sharing with this the author’s rights, respecting the duties of copyright and ceding to the journal the rights over the first publication of the text in its printed and digital version.
This is an open access journal which means that all content is freely available without charge to the user or his/her institution. The partial or integral publication and sharing of the text (in institutional repositories, book chapters, periodical publications, social media and professional platforms in the areas of science and research, among others) determines the quotation of the initial publication in the journal and the hyperlinking to the website of Political Observer - Revista Portuguesa de Ciência Política, resorting, to that effect, to the available information in the DOI (Digital Object Identifier) system.
Political Observer incentives the sharing and distribution of the work published by the authors in the journal, raising the impact factors and the number of registered quotes, this way contributing to an open (https://www.ciencia-aberta.pt/) and accessible science (http://www.unesco.org/new/en/communication-and-information/portals-and-platforms/goap/open-science-movement/). Published works are under a Creative Commons License - Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International .
